From Pasture to Price Tag: Understanding the Rising Cost of Meat

I consider myself very fortunate that I rarely go to the grocery store (we have one in our backyard, and for the things we don’t have here, Rebecca is usually the one who goes). When I do find myself there, though, I usually linger in the meat aisle to take a look at the prices.

For the record, when we set prices for our products, we do not consider prices in stores or those of competitors. We determine prices based on our costs, plus a markup that we know will keep our doors open and the business sustainable. I do, however, find observing grocery store prices interesting and telling of what the commodity meat system produces and how it is priced.

Just a few years ago, I often thought to myself how amazingly inexpensive meat was at the grocery store. Products like ground beef, chicken, and many pork cuts were so cheap. More recently, prices in stores are definitely up across the board. While our prices are still higher (and justifiably so, due to the quality of life our animals experience and the quality of meat our customers receive), the difference isn’t as great as it used to be.

So why have grocery store prices increased so much?

1) Inflation is affecting everyone.
Inflation is affecting everyone, including farmers, butchers, transport companies, and even grocery stores. Out-of-control money printing, higher energy costs, higher taxes, and wages that don’t keep up are a recipe for higher food prices—and for the general public to feel the strain financially.

2) Supply and demand are out of whack.
Several factors, such as drought in the West, an aging farmer population, and higher beef prices (which discourage farmers from maintaining breeding stock), are leading to a lower cattle “inventory” in North America. That means fewer calves and a lower overall population, reducing supply. No one really knows when beef prices will come down, but the best-case scenario appears to be early 2028, based on what I’ve heard.

Traditionally, chicken and other less expensive proteins have helped replace beef as prices rise. While it’s true that more people are choosing chicken as an alternative, beef demand has remained strong despite higher prices. Additionally, increased demand for chicken, combined with population growth and Canada’s restrictive production system (supply management), is projected to raise chicken prices by 25% in 2026.

3) Demand for meat isn’t slowing down.
Experts often claim that more people will turn to “alternative” proteins as prices rise, and perhaps this is true for some. But you can’t beat the real thing, and I believe most people understand this. The public outcry over news that cloned meat could enter the supply chain without labelling is a good indicator that people do not want their food tampered with.

So while I believe our products exist on a different playing field than their commodity and mass-produced counterparts, it’s interesting to observe how markets are changing and to track how these shifts may impact our customers and our business.

Thanks for following along, and I hope you find my insights into our food system useful.